THE U.S. WOMEN'S OPEN
As always, based upon each player’s realistic odds of winning, as opposed to the bookmaker’s handle…
Lorena Ochoa (Mexico) (4-1): The world’s best is in a modest slump, having not won in over a month. Of course, that timespan only included two starts (a T3 at the LPGA Championship and a T6 at last week’s Wegman’s), so…
Annika Sorenstam (Sweden) (8-1): Annika’s last (?) U.S. Open, with prevailing wisdom suggesting that a strong run is in the offing. Could be, though aside from her T3 at the LPGA Championship, she hasn’t cracked the top 10 since the second week of May.
Suzann Pettersen (Norway) (9-1): Though getting attention mostly for blowing last week’s Wegman’s on the final nine, the world number three seems to be rounding into form in the warm weather. Last week’s collapse could linger, but considering the way she rebounded to win last year’s LPGA Championship after blowing the Kraft Nabisco, I doubt it.
Ji-Yai Shin (Korea) (12-1): This 20-year-old up-and-comer seldom plays in America (so far) but quietly finished 6th at last year’s Open. She dominates her homeland tour as few ever have and competed favorably in Australia against the LET’s best during the winter. Indeed, my Oz sources tell me she’s the real thing – and a win here would certainly deliver that message.
Jeong Jang (Korea) (13-1): A great bet for office pools awarding points for the top 10 finishers, but for all of Jang’s fine play, only two wins in over seven full LPGA seasons gives cause to wonder. True, one of them was a Major (the 2005 Women’s British Open) but with three top 10s in her last five U.S. Open starts – but none better than 6th – this is probably more of a place or show bet.
Paula Creamer (USA) (15-1): The world’s 4th-ranked player has two 2008 wins under her belt but has recently been in a run of (relative) mediocrity, finishing between 10th and 16th in four of her last five starts. Of course, the most recent 10th (at last week’s Wegman’s) closed with three straight sub-70 rounds, so perhaps she’s trending well. Alternatively, she’s never bettered 13th in five previous Opens.
Cristie Kerr (USA) (15-1): The defending champ has played through a quiet 2008, but her fortunes seem on the upswing following a T10 at the LPGA Championship and a 5th at last week’s Wegman’s. It’s sort of a hunch placing her this high (on paper, she’s probably more like 20-1) so we’ll see…
Morgan Pressel (USA) (15-1): The confident Pressel really struggled early this year, but with three top 10s in her last four starts (including a T2 at the Sybase and aT6 at the LPGA Championship), the 2007 Kraft Nabisco winner is climbing fast. Tied for 2nd in the 2005 Open as an amateur, so she’s tasted the rarified air. A nice choice once beyond the obvious top three.
Yani Tseng (Taiwan) (16-1): It’s possible that this Taiwanese teenager is getting a bit too much love here, because aside from her impressive victory at the LPGA Championship, she hasn’t bettered a tie for 14th since mid-April. Still, she’s got the requisite length, and any 19-year-old who knows they’re capable of winning a Major is dangerous.
Maria Hjorth (Sweden) (21-1): A playoff loser to Tseng at the LPGA Championship, the long-hitting Hjorth has emerged as a solid threat in 2008, with a 4th-place finish at the Kraft Nabisco also highlighting her season. Clearly her length figures to be an advantage over the nearly 6,800-yard Interlachen layout.
Christina Kim (USA) (23-1): The charismatic Kim has played well of late, thrice finishing among the top seven in three of her last five starts. Though seemingly poised for a (m)ajor breakthrough, her (M)ajor championship record is uninspiring; indeed, her only two MCs of 2008 were at the Kraft Nabisco and the LPGA Championship.
Mi Hyun Kim (Korea) (25-1): An eight-time LPGA winner, this veteran in winless in 2008, but has logged top 10s in three of her last four Majors, including this year’s Kraft Nabisco and LPGA Championship. A little under the radar at present, but stranger things have happened.
Karrie Webb (Australia) (25-1): It’s been an up-and-down year for this Hall-of-Famer, with three top fives slipped in among a number of nondescript starts. She did win the Australian Women’s Open during the winter, but there’s little (beyond raw talent) to suggest a serious run this week. Hasn’t bettered a T16 (including three MCs) at the Open since winning it back-to-back in 2000-01.
Laura Diaz (USA) (30-1): Something of a longshot but after starting the season with two top-four finishes in three starts, then slipping a bit in April and May, Diaz finished 5th at the LPGA Championship and 12th last week in Rochester. Of course, her last top 10 at the Open came in 2002…
Ai Miyazato (Japan) (35-1): A hunch. Not too long ago an up-and-coming international star, Miyazato has struggled in 2008, logging not a single top 10 (including four MCs) in her first 12 starts. She tied for 6th last week in Rochester, however, and certainly possesses a wealth of talent, so just maybe…
Reader Comments (3)
That's a nice Pakpicker entry right there (top 12 and 3 alts)--you should join in! I went with an even longer shot for the win, based on a hunch: Seon Hwa Lee. She definitely has U.S. Open game, as does new mom Hee-Won Han. I threw in Se Ri Pak for similar reasons as Webb, but she has switched clubs and almost won in Korea a couple of weeks ago.
BTW, Shin is most definitely for real. She should have 2 wins in 2 tries on the JLPGA this season (she gave away a playoff she was dominating with a 4-putt) and Karrie Webb had to play the back 9 of her life to get into a playoff with her (ane eventually beat her) in the Australian Women's Open.
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