THE MASTERS
The following list of Masters favorites can potentially be of value to bettors because its odds reflect my sense of each player’s realistic chances of winning – numbers frequently quite different from the odds available from bookmakers, whose odds are based primarily on the handle. Thus if you believe that I know what I’m talking about (and there are no guarantees there), you can compare this list with a bookmaker’s to get a sense of which players may represent the best bets on the bookmaker’s board.
For anyone so inclined, I’ll mention the following two fairly relevant points. First, I place very little value on a player’s most recent performance (i.e. a strong finish in Houston) as a single week’s good golf seldom means much in a Major championship context. Several weeks worth of good form, on the other hand, well, that’s generally a pretty good indicator. And second, I’ve come to believe in recent years that the traditional book on Augusta National – that it’s a long-ball hitter’s paradise favoring the player who can turn it right to left – is no longer terribly valid. So far as the length aspect goes, modern equipment has made virtually every participant (save Stephen Ames’ beloved old-timers) long enough to compete, as recent winners Zach Johnson and Mike Weir can testify. The right-to-left thing, however, is a bit less concrete, because there’s no denying that holes like the 2nd, 5th, 8th (if going for the green in two), 10th, 13th and, to some extent, the 17th all favor the draw, while only the 18th (and, to a far lesser degree, the drive at the 1st) really requires a fade. Yet my sense is that this really isn’t a huge factor anymore, perhaps because with modern equipment, few players work the ball meaningfully in any direction today, thus minimizing anyone’s advantage. Of course, with the event’s all-time king, six-time winner Jack Nicklaus, being a lifelong fader, perhaps the whole left-to-right thing has been overrated since the beginning.
What definitely is not overrated is the value of experience playing at Augusta. Bank on that.
Anyway….
Tiger Woods (USA) (3-1): No point in talking about his strengths here; anyone interested enough to be reading this can recite them chapter and verse. I would only point out that the even-money odds being offered by many bookies is, statistically speaking, a terrible bet. After all, no matter how great Tiger is, he still only wins slightly better that once in every four starts…and he’s only won once here in the last five years. But all of that said, my old friend The Commodore guarantees a Tiger victory.
Phil Mickelson (USA) (8-1): The bookmakers are pretty accurate on this one. Mickelson has had an up-and-down season to date but Augusta rewards experience and discipline as much as any tournament layout on earth. – and with two wins (2004 and ’06) and 10 career top 10s, Mickelson’s experience here is massive. His discipline, of course, is generally an open question…
Geoff Ogilvy (Australia) (13-1): There is much to like here. First, despite only two previous Masters appearances (and a disastrous 81 in last year’s third round), Ogilvy genuinely believes that he can win here. Second, with his game now back on track after limited off-season practice due to the birth of his second child, he’s playing very well, as his WGC victory at Doral indicates. Third, he’s perhaps the only player out there who presently possesses the mental unflappability to give Tiger a run for his money when the heat is on. And fourth, the golf course seems well-suited to his game (he did, after all, lead the field in birdies last year). My personal non-Tiger choice.
Ernie Els (South Africa) (15-1): It’s getting on towards now-or-never time for Els, who put together an exceptional record here early this decade (finishing no worse than 6th from 2000-04) before failing to better a T27 since 2005. On physical talent alone he can never be discounted; indeed, the idea of his eventually finishing his career without a green jacket seems almost as inconceivable as, say…Greg Norman never winning here. But Els has been too up-and-down this year to be reliable (even withdrawing from two recent events) and at this stage, his ability to hold up under the crushing Sunday pressure cannot be taken as a given. He desperately covets this title, though…and we’re getting close to now or never.
Retief Goosen (South Africa) (16-1): After an eight-month semi-slump, Goosen played much better in March, looking very much his old self with a T2 at the WGC-CA Championship. An uninspired T57 in New Orleans might give pause to doubt, but like his countryman Els, Goosen’s physical talent is imposing – and with four top-three finishes here since 2002, he clearly knows his way around. Is he all the way back? Perhaps not, but with his Augusta experience, if Goosen gets off to a good start, he can win.
Vijay Singh (Fiji) (18-1): At age 45, Singh is not quite as consistently great as he once was, but despite the occasional odd round, he’s finished among the top five in four of his last five PGA Tour starts. He also enjoys a fine recent record at Augusta (winning in 2000 and finishing no worse than 8th from 2002-06) so he certainly knows the score. Only the fact that his game seems just a shade less tight than it used to (particularly on the greens) prevents him from rating higher.
Adam Scott (Australia) (20-1): The first question here is Scott’s health; he withdrew after the second round in Houston and while he figures to be okay be Thursday, as Henry Longhurst once wrote, “You never know till you get there.” Otherwise, yes, Scott may well be the best under-30 in the world, and his 2008 form has been fairly strong, but… Scott’s overall Major record isn’t much (four top 10s in 27 starts), and he has little past success at Augusta. He’s bound for a Major breakthrough one of these days…I think.
K.J. Choi (Korea) (22-1): Choi has been playing strong, steady golf in 2008. Far more importantly, he appears to possess just the proper mix of toughness, focus and discipline to succeed here. His Augusta record includes one top 10 in five visits (a memorable 3rd in 2004) but his game has improved enough in the last 18 months that most of that history is probably irrelevant.
Steve Stricker (USA) (24-1): Despite being ranked 4th in the world, Stricker’s record at Augusta is uninspiring (one top 10 and four missed cuts in seven appearances) and to me, his game doesn’t feel particularly Masters friendly. The thing is, he’s playing such consistently good golf these days that he cannot be ignored – and besides, as the legendary Willie Park Jr. memorably opined: “A man who can putt is a match for anyone.”
Padraig Harrington (Ireland) (25-1): The reigning British Open champion has been playing steadily good (if unspectacular) golf of late, and at age 36 is just entering what figures to be his competitive prime. With only a pair of top 10s in eight career starts, however, his Masters record, while hardly poor, indicates no particular knack for playing Augusta. Then again, with the club steadily codifying the course to play like a U.S. Open site, perhaps this once key aspect isn’t so important anymore…
Jim Furyk (USA) (27-1): Furyk has not had a terrible season to date (two top 10s in nine starts) but lets not forget that the world’s 7th-ranked player began 2008 at number two. Like Steve Stricker, Augusta has never felt like Furyk’s type of layout to me – and with three top 10s in 11 Masters starts, he just might echo that sentiment.
Henrik Stenson (Sweden) (27-1): A bit overlooked in America because he seldom plays here but the world’s 13th-ranked player seems a good fit at Augusta – though he’s only missed a cut and tied for 17th in two appearances. Is winless in 2008 but generally playing well.
Sergio Garcia (Spain) (30-1): Two top 10s, three MCs in nine appearances. So what? After last year’s fatalistic soul-bearing at Carnoustie, does Garcia have what it takes mentally to win a Major? Can his putting hold up over four days on some of the most dangerous greens around? The ball-striking’s certainly still there…but a win seems a longshot, all things considered.
Justin Rose (England) (30-1): Another highly ranked player (9th in the world) with little on his overall CV to suggest he can win here…except, perhaps, for a 5th place tie a year ago. I keep expecting Rose to show us another gear…but so far the talented 27-year-old has not yet even won in America. Amazing, but true.
Luke Donald (England) (31-1): Further evidence that length is no longer a key: the modestly powerful Donald has two top 10s at Augusta in just three career appearances. As with Rose, I believe there’s enough talent here to make a Green Jacket possible. Unlike with Rose, Donald has two tournament victories in the States, which might give him some sort of psychological leg up.
Rory Sabbatini (South Africa) (31-1): After a slow start (MCs in his first three appearances), last year’s tie for 2nd suggests that the fiery Sabbatini can potentially win here. He hasn’t played especially well since early February, but with his self-confidence, it might not matter.
Angel Cabrera (Argentina) (33-1): The reigning U.S. Open champion is another who hasn’t been at his best recently (two MCs and a WD in his last three American starts) but his superb driving game figures to sit favorably at Augusta. Has three top 10s in eight Masters starts, so there is some positive background to draw on.
Tim Clark (South Africa) (37-1): Yet another who hasn’t been peaking of late, nor does he carry the ideal power for Augusta. But Clark’s overall skill and short game make up for a lot, as his 2nd-place finish in 2006 suggests.
Andres Romero (Argentina) (40-1): A dark horse perhaps, but this 26-year-old Argentinean can play. His recent victory in New Orleans will serve as a confidence boost, and while he has only limited Major experience, he has logged top 10s in both of his two British Open appearances.
Paul Casey (England) (50-1): Another longshot as his form has been up and down for a while now. But Casey can pound it, and he’s logged two top-10 finishes in three Masters starts.
Daniel
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