DAILY NOTES - April 13, 2008
The Masters - Augusta, GA
And As They Turn For Home...
One round to go now, and when we consider that 16 of the last 17 Masters champions have come from Sunday’s final pairing, it would be easy to say that the list of still-viable prospects is a short one. The thing is, looking at the top four players on the board – Trevor Immelman, Brandt Snedeker, Steve Flesch and Paul Casey – we see a group with relatively limited experience contending on Sunday afternoon for a Major championship. Thus while even non-golfers will note the presence of one Eldrick “Tiger” Woods in the fifth spot, the reality is that with such limited experience on the lead, the list of players still at least vaguely in the hunt might run a bit farther down the board than usual. Combine this with the likelihood that a tournament committee will place some back nine pins in fairly accessible spots in attempts at generating some drama and I’m willing to say that it is possible – certainly not likely, but possible – that someone as far back as two under par could still sneak in.
So, as Trevor Immelman sleeps (?) on his two-shot 54-hole lead, here’s one final assessment of the favorites (and longshots) for Sunday.
Trevor Immelman (68-68-69 205): There may be nothing harder in golf than sleeping with the lead in a Major for three straight nights; by Sunday you’re just trying to keep the momentum going for one final day, and with the stifling pressure, your first real mistake too often deflates you right back into the pack. But that said, I think Immelman stands a great chance to close the deal today. This is a player who, prior to his health scare of 2007, finished 7th in earnings (and won the Western Open) as a 26-year-old PGA Tour rookie in 2006. Perhaps more importantly, he has also been through the wars internationally, winning back-to-back South African Opens in 2003 and ’04 among his seven overseas victories. Those who have followed his career from his early days in South Africa are in no way surprised by his presence here, nor will they be at all surprised if he dons a Green Jacket before nightfall. Oh, by the way, in winning the ’06 Western, he defeated Tiger Woods (and Mathew Goggin) by two.
Brandt Snedeker (69-68-70 207): For a young player whose previous best Major finish was tied for 18th at last year’s PGA, Snedeker showed some major league resilience on Saturday, potentially blowing himself out of with bogeys at the 11th, 12th and 13th…then rallying wonderfully with birdies at the 14th, 15th and 18th to get right back into the fray. Can he win? Starting only two back of a solitary leader, absolutely. The problem is that by any measure, both Immelman and Paul Casey are considerably more battle-hardened – and that’s not even considering the prospect of his potentially having to battle it out with Woods.
Steve Flesch (672-67-69 208): The likeable Flesch is a four-time PGA Tour winner (including the 2004 Colonial) so he’s hardly a stranger to playing late in the day on Sunday, however… This is an entirely different sort of stage, and there’s little on his CV to suggest he’s ready to triumph on it. Of the top five, he seems easily the least likely choice.
Paul Casey (71-69-69 209): This guy is sneaky good, being an eight-time European Tour winner at age 29, and with two Masters top 10s to his credit in only three starts. He can also really pound it which, all things considered, never hurts (especially at the potentially crucial 13th and 15th on Sunday). Of course, he’s never won in America, and has only limited experience in this rarified Major air. It's easy to see him going either way, but my guess is he'll hang around.
Tiger Woods (72-71-68 211): What can we say? It’s a virtual certainty he’ll make a move, likely on the order of another 68, at least. But that would only get him to nine under par, and I'm thinking that won’t be enough. Can he go lower? That’s too dumb a question to dignify with a response. But truthfully, he's likely going to have to if he wants to win, and so far this week Woods hasn’t looked like a 65 was imminent. But then again, this is truly a different breed of cat.
Which Leaves Us With...: Stewart Cink, the only man at four-under-par 212, has been playing well all season, but his career best round at Augusta is 69, and he’ll need to go a good three strokes lower if he’s to have any real chance. We then face a logjam of no less than nine players at two under, but realistically, only those who seem capable of going really low are worth considering. The two that most readily fit this description are two-time Masters champ Phil Mickelson and two-time U.S. Open winner Retief Goosen, with the recent winner of the Zurich Classic, Argentina’s Andres Romero perhaps representing a longshot. But for these boys, everything – and that means everything – must go just right.
PS - Lorena Ochoa leads the LPGA's Corona Championship by seven (!) entering today's final round, and a win will make her the youngest ever to qualify for entry into the golf Hall of Fame (she'll also set a record for the longest wait to actually be inducted since that won't be done until she's been on Tour for 10 years). Bad timing for Ochoa as only three events - the Masters, the U.S. Open or the Open Championship - clearly have the juice to bump her completely from page one. Then again, with her present form, she may continue winning for a while, so we'll have plenty of time in the weeks ahead to (re)ponder her greatness.
Reader Comments (4)
Hound Dog found out LPGA's mistake--Karrie Webb was the youngest to qualify and Se Ri Pak will remain the youngest to be inducted. But Ochoa did break Sorenstam's "fastest past the $1M mark in a season" record this week....
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