PODS Championship – Palm Harbor, FL  (Odds by Ladbrokes)

The Favorites:

Ernie Els (9-1): A huge favorite with the oddsmakers, but who can blame them?  It’s easy to feel that with last week’s confidence-building Honda Classic victory, Big Ernie could be ready to break loose.  He’s never played here before, plus 9-1 might seem like short odds for someone who wins one of every 16 PGA Tour events he starts...but at this moment, who looks more likely to win?

Justin Rose (20-1):  Clearly rated a favorite based on his world ranking (#7) more than his career record in Florida (only 1 top 10 in 14 career starts) or any special recent form – though a closing 67 at the Honda Classic was solid enough.  Talented enough to win at any time…but it hasn’t happened in America yet.

Steve Stricker (20-1): A tricky pick.  Three top 10s in five ’08 starts (including a playoff loss in Hawaii) suggests a continuation of his stellar ’07 form, but Stricker has made few waves in Florida over the years, logging five top 10s in 39 starts (roughly 5% less than his career top-10 average of 18.1%).  Chancy, but he’s playing well...
 
Wild Cards:

Stuart Appleby (25-1): A longtime Orlando resident so Florida agronomics shouldn’t be an issue.  Hasn’t won since 2006 but with top 10s in all four ’08 starts, he’s clearly on form.  A good bet.

Stewart Cink (25-1): Save for an MC in Phoenix, playing well in ’08, a final-round thrashing by Tiger Woods at the WGC-Match Play notwithstanding.  Has an up-and-down Florida record, and the Match play final might have cooled him off...but if not, he’ll be heard from.

Robert Allenby (33-1): Struggled a bit during the fall and winter but seems to be back on form, finishing 12th at the Bob Hope, 7th at the Northern Trust and 4th last week at the Honda.  Hasn’t won stateside since 2001, so he’s due...

Mark Calcavecchia (40-1): Are these odds right?  Okay, so he’s 47, but...  He’s the defending champion, a Florida resident who’s won three times in state and very nearly won last week in West Palm Beach.  Unless you think he’s tired, a nice pick at 40-1.

Longshots:

Jason Day (80-1): Made last week's longshot picks look superb by missing the Honda cut, but at 80-1 I’ll ride him one more time.  Lots and lots of talent here...

Steve Elkington (80-1): Has missed his last two cuts, but also finished 5th at the Hope and 4th in Phoenix, so he’s hardly on the rocks.  Also four times a winner in Florida (twice each at the Players and Doral), making him a pretty decent bet here anytime.

 

Elsewhere: The complete lack of top-50 players in the Maybank Malaysian Open field makes for some wide-open wagering, though two of the five favorites listed at 20-1 (South African Charl Schwartzel and India’s Jyoti Randhawa) would seem the best choices.  New Zealand’s Mark Brown (25-1) is clearly on form as he pursues his third straight victory.  Coming off a top 10 finish at the Johnnie Walker, Argentina’s long-hitting Daniel Vancsik is an intriguing longshot at 66-1.