BEST BETS
WGC Accenture Match Play – Marana, AZ (Odds by Ladbrokes)
The Favorites:
Tiger Woods (2-1): As he wins “only” 26% of his PGA Tour starts, and has only won twice in nine tries here, he’s actually not a very good bet at 2:1 odds – but would you care to wager against him?
Phil Mickelson (10-1): Comes in hot, generally plays well in the desert and his aggressiveness would seem to serve him better in match play than medal – though a dismal record here (only once reaching even the quarter-finals in eight starts) tends to suggest otherwise. A potential third-round match with Geoff Ogilvy could be a stumbling block, but he wouldn’t have to face Tiger until the final. A good bet – but that’s based more on hunch than hard data.
Adam Scott (20-1): He let me down last week at Riviera (T14) but is a big-time talent who has experienced some success here previously (reaching the semis in 2003 and the quarters in ’05). His 61 in Qatar last month shows he’s certainly not out of form and he’s got a good draw – but potentially facing Tiger in the semis statistically diminish his chances. Certainly capable of winning, but I learned my lesson last week.
Ernie Els (20-1): Two ways to look at this: 1) He has lost in the first round here in each of his last three appearances and is widely portrayed as being on thin psychological ice after losing to Tiger (again) in Dubai, or 2) He cannot dislike the format because he’s won the World Match Play Championship seven times (!!), and a man of this talent level can only be held down so long. Which argument carries more weight? At this point, I haven’t a clue...
Henrik Stenson (25-1): Padraig Harrington’s rated above him (20-1) but Stenson is the defending champion, he can hit it the requisite distance, and he’s got four straight top 10s (including runner ups in Abu Dhabi and Qatar) on the E Tour coming in.
Wild Cards:
Angel Cabrera (40-1): With a golf course and format where length can really help, Cabrera – who can pound it with the best of them – cannot be overlooked. Has never won more than a single match here, but that was before strolling in as the U.S. Open champion.
Steve Stricker (40-1): Talk about no respect! He’s ranked #3 in the world, is a past champion here (2001), is the top seed in the Snead bracket and comes in playing well (two top 10s and an 11th in four PGA Tour starts)...and he’s going off at 40-1? Didn’t do a lot here in the years he didn’t win, but 40-1 seems pretty appetizing...
Martin Kaymer (66-1): Perhaps viewed as a longshot in America where he is less known than overseas. A real up-and-comer in Europe where he was E Tour Rookie of the Year in 2007, already has a win in ’08, and was the only man to make a serious move on Tiger during the final round in Dubai. A newcomer here, but to date he has hardly needed much adjustment time at any level.
Longshots:
Trevor Immelman (80-1): A world-class talent who finished 3rd here last year, but was slowed during the fall and winter following surgery to remove a benign growth from his diaphragm. Has MCs in both 2008 American starts but says he’s feeling healthy again. Seldom does this kind of talent go off at 80-1...
Geoff Ogilvy (80-1): ...And yet here it is happening twice. True Ogilvy's struggled a bit at several early '08 events but he's finished 1st and 2nd in this event in two starts, has all the requisite shots and the old-fashioned temperament to shine at match play. An absolute steal at 80-1.
Nick O’Hern (125-1): Aside from twice knocking out Tiger here, this hardnosed lefty has reached the quart-finals in three of his four starts. Has shown mixed form thus far in ’08, and has both Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh in his draw. Still, who among the non-elite can be as genuinely confident in this format?
Daniel
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